Roberto Duncan

Inflation dynamics and forecasting

Just Do IT? An Assessment of Inflation Targeting in a Global Comparative Case Study
(with Enrique Martínez-García and Patricia Toledo)
Paper

Forecasting Food Price Inflation during Global Crises
(with Patricia Toledo; Journal of Forecasting) Article | Paper

Tempting FAIT: Flexible Average Inflation Targeting and the Post-Covid U.S. Inflation Surge
(with Enrique Mart&iacutenez-Garc&iacutea and Luke Miller)
Paper (soon)

Central Bank Predictions, Heterogeneous Expectations, and Inflation Dynamics
(with Enrique Mart&iacutenez-Garc&iacutea)
Paper (soon)

Forecasting Inflation in Open Economies: What Can a NOEM Model Do?
(with Enrique Mart&iacutenez-Garc&iacutea; Journal of Forecasting) Article | Working paper

Flexible Average Inflation Targeting: How Much Is U.S. Monetary Policy Changing?
(with Jarod Coulter and Enrique Mart&iacutenez-Garc&iacutea; Economía) Article | Working paper

New Perspectives on Forecasting Inflation in Emerging Market Economies: An Empirical Assessment
(with Enrique Mart&iacutenez-Garc&iacutea; International Journal of Forecasting)
Article | Working paper | My coauthor talking about the paper (video) | A VoxEU Post

Convergence in development and health indicators

Long-run Overweight Levels and Convergence in Body Mass Index
(with Patricia Toledo; Economics & Human Biology) Article | Paper

Do Overweight and Obesity Prevalence Rates Converge in Europe?
(with Patricia Toledo; Research in Economics) Article | Paper

Inequality in Body Mass Indices across Countries: Evidence from Convergence Tests
(with Patricia Toledo; Economics & Human Biology) Article | Paper

Regional Convergence in Chile: New Tests, Old Results
(with Rodrigo Fuentes; Latin American Journal of Economics (Cuadernos de Economía))
Article

The cyclicality of macro-policies and macroeconomic volatility

Do Good Institutions Promote Countercyclical Macroeconomic Policies?
(with César Calderón and Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel; Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics) Article | Final version (includes Supplementary Appendix)

Institutional Quality, the Cyclicality of Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Volatility
(Journal of Macroeconomics)
Article | Working paper version in Ideas | Supplementary Appendix

A Simple Model to Teach Business Cycle Macroeconomics for Emerging Market and Developing Economies
(Journal of Economic Education)
Article | Supplementary Appendix | Related Working Paper (Ideas)

The Role of Credibility in the Cyclical Properties of Macroeconomic Policies: Evidence for Emerging Economies
(with César Calderón and Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel; Review of World Economics) Article | Working paper (Ideas)

Global imbalances and the US current account deficit

Does the US Current Account Show a Symmetric Behavior over the Business Cycle?
(International Review of Economics and Finance) Article | Working paper (Ideas)

A Threshold Model of the US Current Account
(Economic Modelling)
Article | Working paper (Ideas) | An Econbrowser Post

Financial Liberalization, Low World Interest Rates, and Global Imbalances: A Note with a Simple Two-Country Model
(Applied Economics Letters)
Article